A Four-For-One Deal That Should Never Happen

In the quest to see the Houston Astros win their first-ever World Series Championship, many critics believe the team needs another starting pitcher. The trio of Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, and Lance McCullers is a formidable group. Additionally, Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton each have shown signs they deserve a start in the postseason. With this being far from an ideal situation, talks of acquiring an additional pitcher for the playoffs do have merit. 

It has been suggested that James Paxton is a controllable arm that would come at a low price. I wish that Mariners management would view Paxton that way, but in reality, they should view Paxton's value between that of Chris Sale and Johnny Cueto.

My analysis of James Paxton and the fit for the Astros and Mariners makes two generous assumptions: one, the Mariners decide to sell and two, they accept a package from a divisional rival. The Mariners would likely have to face Paxton a handful of times the next couple of seasons. In my personal opinion, with several win-now contracts, the Mariners are more likely to engage in a "soft sell" similar to what the Pirates did in 2016. This is due to their 39-39 record concluding play on Sunday and they're still in reasonable position to obtain a wild card berth. In fact, FiveThirtyEight credits the club with a 34% chance of making the postseason despite an average simulated season of just 83-79.

The asset in question is likely one of the most underrated starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. Estimating trade value for the left-handed is difficult to gauge, but any hypothetical suggestion of a 1:1 deal is ridiculous and insults the Mariners competence. In 347 career innings, Paxton has worked to a 3.42 ERA/3.22 FIP alongside 8.7 H/9 and 0.7 HR/9 ratios with 8.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. He also ranks well among his peers, as from 119 pitchers with at least 240 IP since 2015, Paxton ranks 27th in K/9, 54th in BB/9, 37th in ERA, and 12th in FIP. From a financial perspective, Paxton will be eligible for arbitration following the 2017 season and could be a free agency in advance of the 2021 season.

That being said, I strongly reject the notion that the Astros should pursue Paxton with any aggression. The deal breaker for the Astros here is not prospect capital to yield to a divisional rival; it is health of the proposed acquisition. 

Thus far in the month of June, the Astros relief corp has thrown 87 1/3 innings, which is fourth-most in MLB. The result that matters most is not pretty. The staff relief ERA for June is 4.84; however, a 3.07 FIP suggests a ton of bad luck. I also trust their rate stats (11.65 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, and 1.03 HR/9) which are consistent with season results. Perhaps the most impressive piece of data for the month of June is their 2.81 SIERA, which is 0.16 runs better than their cumulative season mark. 

If the bullpen is THIS good despite being overworked, I am anxious to see the results from a bullpen that gets the ball in the 7th inning as opposed to the fourth, fifth, or on days in which Martes throws, the third inning. James Paxton is likely not the guy to depend on for going deep into a game. The Astros would be seeking to increase their operational effectiveness by acquiring an SP, and Paxton's health is a detriment. Yes, he certainly has the skillset of a top-fifty pitcher, but he has demonstrated an inability to both stay healthy and pitch deep into games. James averages 5.68 IP per start throughout his career. 

Looking at a longevity standpoint, Paxton falls well short of a trade package the Mariners would seek. From 2015 to the present, only 9 pitchers have cracked the 500 IP threshold. As good as Paxton has been while he is healthy, he is certainly not what the Astros are looking for, as it is a significant detriment to his value that he has thrown just 249 innings. 

It is not out of the realm of possibility to see the Mariners' asking price be similar to what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale last winter. While James Paxton is certainly no Sale, team control has a lot of weight in a trade, which is evidenced in the Nationals' acquisition of Adam Eaton. I envision that the two teams will never match up on a trade scenario that benefits both parties, but if they were, a Paxton swap would include Derek Fisher, Francis Martes, David Paulino, and Cionel Perez.

Yikes. Houston is better off trading those guys in an attempt to land Jacob DeGrom, Chris Archer, or somebody else. 

Your 2016 National League Cy Young Champion: Jose Fernandez

The Miami Marlins donning the number 16 in Monday's win against the New York Mets was an impressive gesture toward the memory of Jose Fernandez. In the past few days, I have wished that this was some sick, twisted joke. But as the hours slowly tick away, and baseball remembers the potential Hall of Fame career lost at just 24 years of age, my mind wants to properly express its feelings. 

Laying in bed on Tuesday night, I wondered if a pitcher had ever won the Cy Young Award posthumously. If not, Jose Fernandez had an impressive case for the award so far this season. In the transition from counting stats to sabermetrics, Jose entered the conversation with his 6.2 WAR rating in 29 starts this season. I admit, this is not the perfect tool. 

Nor is a win-loss record combined with ERA, which in Fernandez' case, was 16-8 and 2.86 this season. 

You know what? Forget about arguing whether or not Jose Fernandez deserves the 2016 National League Cy Young Award. 

Think about Dee Gordon's first at-bat on Monday against the New York Mets. A left-handed batter, he took the first pitch of the game with the same batting stance as his teammate. Later in that same at-bat, he crushed a ball to the second deck at Marlins Park. In a post-game interview, Gordon stated "if you don't believe in God, you might wanna start." 

Think about Aledyms Diaz' grand slam Tuesday night. The twitter accounts of the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins had an interaction that starts the water works for pretty much everyone. 

Think about the family of Jose Fernandez. His mother, who he saved from drowning when he defected from Cuba. Think about his grandmother, who the Marlins arranged a visa for, and surprised Fernandez and reunited their family.

The next part hits me pretty hard. Fernandez and his girlfriend, Maria, who were expecting a baby. 

While it is unlikely that Fernandez will win the Cy Young Award, I think that it would be the comfort his family requires. It may even help the baseball world heal. Unfortunately, from a statistical point of view, there are more qualified candidates. 

I am certain that, in time, Major League Baseball will properly pay homage to the life and legacy of Jose Fernandez. May his joy for playing baseball be replicated.

Bring Yoenis Cespedes to Houston

A year ago today, or maybe not even that long ago, I would have laughed if you wanted Yoenis Cespedes on the Houston Astros. "There are prospects on the way!" I may have exclaimed to discuss Preston Tucker, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, and Daz Cameron as part of the Houston Astros future.

But a lot has changed in the past few months. The 2016 Houston Astros season has been a massive disappointment. Dallas Keuchel regressed heavily; Tony Sipp had the worst season of his career; the closing job has been a rotating door thanks to an inconsistent manager. We learned that Carlos Correa has difficult hitting left-handed pitching. Lance McCullers season has been cut short by shoulder soreness/fatigue.

2016 has been a difficult year for the Houston Astros.

Some things have gone right. Jose Altuve is making an attempt to lead the American League in hits for the third consecutive season, though, Wednesday night's early exit has him in doubt for the opener in Seattle this weekend. Alex Bregman ascended quickly from Double-A Corpus Christi, making a pit stop in AAA Fresno, before coming to the Major Leagues and defining himself as a quality top-of-the-order hitter.

The signing of Cuban infielder Yullieski Gurriel has shown early signs of being a great deal. Through his first 21 games, the 32-year-old Cuban superstar is slashing .338/.360/.521 with three home runs.

Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (23), Yuli's younger brother, recently held a showcase for MLB teams and is likely to contend for the 2017 Rookie of the Year award.

Yoenis Cespedes signed a three-year deal last offseason with the New York Mets worth $75 million. That deal, however, includes an opt-out after this season. With $47 million left on the table, many writers and executives in MLB think he will walk and test free agency again. As well he should. In 117 games this season, Cespedes has hit .288/.358/.557 and driven in 79 runs. Among Astros' with at least 200 plate appearances, Cespedes would have an OPS superior to all but Jose Altuve (.952, .915).

Jon Heyman believes that Yoenis will earn a 4-year deal worth $100 million this winter. If I were the General Manager of the Houston Astros, I would definitely make a competitive offer for Cespedes' services for the 2017 and beyond seasons.

The Astros window to win is now. With a quality lineup that adds Yoenis Cespedes as a left fielder and retains Luis Valbuena as a first baseman, the offense would compete with any team on any day.