Monday, February 29, 2016

40 Man Roster Review: Luke Gregerson

The next pitcher in the 40-man roster review is Luke Gregerson. Originally signed by the St. Louis Cardinals through the 2006 draft, Gregerson made his Major League Debut in 2009. He has served the entirety of his seven-year career as a relief pitcher.

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In December 2014, the Houston Astros inked Gregerson to a three-year pact, set to expire at the end of the 2017 season. That agreement was for a total value of $18.5 million dollars.

Prior to signing with the Astros, Gregerson had the best season of his career with the Oakland Athletics. With that club, which won a Wild Card berth, Gregerson pitched to a 2.12 earned run average across 72 1/3 innings of work.

With the Houston Astros, however, Gregerson struggled. The Astros asked him to change into a role as a closing pitcher. Before the 2015 season, Luke had collected 19 saves throughout six years of being a member of the relief corps, seldom getting an opportunity to finish a game.

The Astros gave him an opportunity in the 2015 season. Given a new role, he was nearly guaranteed to surpass his records. But the new pressure resulted in his highest earned run average since his sophomore effort in the major leagues.

While I feel that Gregerson is an adequate closer, I think that Luke's track record as a set-up man is hard to ignore.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

40 Man Roster Review: Ken Giles

Everyone loves speed. Whether it be Jose Altuve stealing second base or a closing pitcher lighting up the radar gun, speed is good. With the Astros' acquisition of Ken Giles, they now have speed on the basepaths and out of the bullpen.
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Giles threw 1,185 pitches during the 2015 season. 471 of those, 39.74%, were greater than 96 miles per hour. The Astros as a team combined to throw just 268 such pitches, with 81 of those belonging to Vincent Velasquez.

Velasquez, of course, was one of the pieces sent back to Philadelphia.

Okay, enough googly eyes about velocity.

Giles is still a very unknown commodity in the major leagues. Through parts of two seasons, he owns a career 1.56 earned run average. That mark has been developed through 115 2/3 innings on a team that lost a combined 188 games in the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

And during the 2015 season, Giles was tasked with save situations 20 times. In 15 of those, he locked down the save. However, he blew it 5 times, so his save percentage was a lackluster 75% for the season.

Now there are many, many folks who expect Ken Giles to be the closer. After all, it does not make much sense to trade three starting pitchers (Velasquez, Mark Appel, and Brett Oberholtzer) plus a pair of minor league pitchers for an ordinary bullpen arm.

Adding Ken Giles to the Astros bullpen, however, is more about adding core competence. Astros fans need not be reminded of the collapse in the 8th inning in Game 4 of the American League Division Series. Would having Giles available for the 9th inning changed the outcome of that inning? No. What if Giles were a Kelvin Herrera option in the 7th inning? Or, being bold, what if he were a Wade Davis?

These hypothetical questions may never be answered. One thing is certain: A.J. Hinch's job just got easier, because Giles > Qualls.

40 Man Roster Review: Doug Fister

On the heels of an unexpected 86-win campaign, the Houston Astros are expected to build on that success in the 2016 season. While some fans would have liked the Astros to increase their payroll above the $100 million threshold, that is something they will have to endure just a while longer.

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The truth is that the club was still shopping in the bargain bin in the 2015-2016 offseason. Now this may not have been a terrible decision, because as of mid-February, the signing of Doug Fister appears to be a steal in the current market.

Doug Fister has been involved as, arguably, the key piece in two trades. One of those came in the 2011 season, where he was included in a six-player deal. Fister went from Seattle to Detroit in that swap. In December 2013, the Nationals acquired him for a pair of minor league pitchers and an utility infielder.

The 2015 season was probably Fister's worst in the major leagues. He pitched in just 103 innings. In that time his strikeout to walk ratio was just 2.63 to 1 and he allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings. Some of his struggles can be attributed to a forearm strain that cost him the majority of the season.

Brooks Baseball credits Fister with six pitches. Take that with a grain of salt, however, as Fister is primarily a sinker-baller. In 2015 his usage of the sinker was in excess of 60% in each month. Obviously, there is a significant drop-off in % usage for his other pitches, with a slider and curveball receiving most of the remaining use.

Throughout his career, Fister has posted a 48.8% ground ball rate. That makes since given his use of a sinker. The 44.6% mark posted in 2015 is a cause for concern, which helps explain why Fister had a seemingly low value in free agency.

One final thing of note is his height. At 6'8", Fister is now the tallest member of the Houston Astros. I cannot help but think about Chris Young (Royals) and how he shut the Astros down in relief during the American League Division Series. A fellow Astro, Scott Feldman, is also among the more vertically successful pitchers in Major League Baseball. It seems that although these pitchers are not gifted with velocity, they are able to be average to above-average pitchers with ease, at least in terms of earned run average.

With this in mind, I am confident that Doug Fister will be a steady component of the Astros rotation this season. After all, his 7-year career in the major leagues suggests he can be very good (1.79 ERA in 70 1/3 innings w/ DET in 2011) or at least a quality arm in a contending rotation (3.42 career ERA).

Friday, February 19, 2016

40 Man Roster Review: Mike Fiers

The next player to be reviewed is right-handed pitcher Mike Fiers. Originally a 22nd round selection of the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2009 draft, the Astros acquired him and Carlos Gomez in a trade at the 2015 deadline.
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Fiers is probably most recognized for his no-hitter in mid-August. In a 3-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, Fiers was masterful of his arsenal. Brooks Baseball, simplistically defines his arsenal as a pair of fastball variants, two breaking pitches, and an off-speed offering. With the help of pitching coach Brent Strom, I am excited to see further development.

Despite pitching a no-hitter last season, I consider Fiers time with the Astros up-and-down. Part of this can be attributed to questionable managing. I am in no way suggesting that AJ Hinch did a bad job last season. However, it is confusing to acquire a pitcher then immediately use him as an emergency relief pitcher.

The month in which he threw a no-hitter, August, Fiers settled into his new club quite well. Of course, such a performance helps to maintain a low batting average against as well as earned run average.

September, on the other hand, saw mixed to poor outings from Fiers. Three of his five starts in September were quality. In the grand scheme of things, however, he struggled to a 4.45 earned run average.

This seesaw of results likely played a role in him not starting a game in the postseason. But for him to not transfer to a relief role, one that he served his debut in albeit terrible results, is a little puzzling.

Regardless of the past, Fiers seems to have been a solid pickup for the Astros. With a full spring training and Brent Strom's guidance, I am expecting Fiers to display more consistent strings of success. Oh yeah, and he will be a starting pitcher. There are no doubts about that.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

40 Man Roster Review: Josh Fields

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The next player in my 40 man roster review is one of the more underrated players on the Houston Astros. Josh Fields was a selection in the December 2012 edition of the Rule 5 draft.

Brooks Baseball credits the 6'0" right-handed pitcher with a four pitch offering. His most used pitch is a cut-fastball in the mid-90's. A slider, curveball, and change-up are also deployed in efforts to keep opposing batters off balance.

Through parts of three seasons with the MLB club, Fields owns a 4.27 earned run average across 143 1/3 innings of work. That figure, to me, is vastly misleading. In the 2014 and 2015 campaigns, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP, for short), credits Fields with marks of 2.09 and 2.19, respectively.

To further illustrate how Fields has outperformed his earned run average, I set certain parameters into Fangraphs. Since Fields has tossed 104 2/3 innings in this last two innings, I felt that American League relievers with 100+ innings should be qualified. Of the 43 pitchers that met these requirements, Fields' combined FIP of 2.14 ranked 5th overall.

These highly successful relief pitchers included Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Jake McGee, and Dellin Betances. These four men ahead of Fields posted a significantly better mark on Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). Josh posted a mark of .327; the highest of the bunch ahead of him was McGee's .279 statistic.

Mark Appel via Twitter
Using the same parameters, I took a look at his strikeout per 9 innings ratio. I suppose that it does make sense for Fields to rank so well in this category. Fields' 11.71 K/9 rate ranks him 8th among 43 qualified relief pitchers.

Lastly, while evaluating Fields among his peers, I felt that home run/fly ball percentage is yet another good tool in analyzing his performance. This was, personally, the most surprising metric of Fields past two years.

Only Blaine Hardy (Tigers) and Wade Davis (Royals) have posted a better HR/FB ratio. In the long run, 3.2% of Fields' fly balls batted against him will have left the yard, as compared to Hardy's 3.0% and Davis' 2.9%. Incredible.

My findings were drawn to confirm my bias that Josh Fields is one of the most underrated members of the Houston Astros bullpen. It seems that Fields is an above-average option for the Astros in the later stages of baseball games.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

40 Man Roster Review: Michael Feliz

An electric arm. If you asked me what I thought of Michael Feliz, that would be my response. Prior to the start of the Astros 2015 season, Feliz was to be assigned to the Corpus Christi Hooks as the #7 prospect in the system.

Feliz is first and foremost a starting pitcher, but made his debut in 2015 as a member of the Astros bullpen. He is a right-handed pitcher who has a three pitch mix, including a fastball in the upper 90's plus a low 80's slider and change-up. The video, at the bottom of this page, displays his repertoire during a short-season Class A contest, while Feliz pitched for the Tri-City Valley Cats.

During the 2010 calendar year, as a 17-year-old, Feliz inked a deal with the Oakland Athletics. That contract was short-lived, however, as Feliz tested positive for substance abuse. Under the management of Ed Wade, the Astros signed him anyway, for a lesser price of course. 

Feliz tossed over 100 innings between 2010 and part of the 2012 season before making any waves in the system. Something clicked mid-season and he posted a 1.64 earned run average in 38 1/3 innings with the Gulf Coast League Astros (rookie ball). 

Take note that his success began during the 2012 campaign, In the December prior to the 2012 season, Jeff Luhnow was brought aboard as the General Manager of the Houston Astros. 

Success was a roller coaster ride (see ERA) for Feliz in each season, including 2012, to the present. But it is widely documented that the California League is a difficult environment for pitchers. Take Lance McCullers, for example. The stud pitcher for the Astros posted a 5.47 earned run average during his time with the Lancaster Jethawks; 4.41 for Feliz. 

Entering the 2016 campaign, Feliz owns just 38 days of MLB service time. It is hard to see him breaking camp with the big-league squad. I think that he is a viable depth option for either the bullpen or starting rotation, and am excited to see his progression with the Fresno Grizzlies during the 2016 season.




Tuesday, February 16, 2016

40 Man Roster Review: Scott Feldman

Prior to the 2014 season, Scott Feldman signed a 3 year, $30 million contract with the Houston Astros. I recall that, at the time of the signing, I was disappointed. Injuries cost him much of the 2015 season. Overall, in two seasons with the club, Feldman has worked to a 13-17 record including a respected 3.80 earned run average.

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Entering the 2016 season, Feldman might be the odd man out of a rotation that includes Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, and Doug Fister.

Overall, Feldman is an 11-year MLB veteran. He has compiled a 4.42 career ERA in just under 1200 innings (1198.0).

The majority of his work came from his time with the Texas Rangers. I am optimistic that Feldman learned how to pitch in the major leagues after struggling to find himself at the end of the 2000's. In 8 years with the Rangers, Feldman posted a 4.81 ERA in 727 2/3 innings pitched.

In the time spent outside of Rangers employment, Scott has yielded much better results. Only in 90 2/3 innings in the American League East has Feldman posted an ERA north of 4 since the 2012 season. Without much analysis, I reject the argument that 2013-present is a small sample size, as 470 1/3 innings is nearly 40% of his time in the major leagues.

For the most part, Feldman has a three pitch offering. Brooks Baseball credits his brief 2015 work including an upper 80s cut-fastball and sinker with a typical 75 mph curve ball.

Feldman's ability to stick in the rotation depends on his ability to keep the ball on the ground as well as in the ballpark. During his tenure with the Rangers, he was consistently in the 50-60% range for ground balls. While that figure dipped for a few years, there is evidence to suggest he can recover a 50% mark. Between the 2014 and 2015 seasons, albeit a 72 inning discrepancy, Feldman increased his ground ball rate by 2%.

Feldman is a respected MLB veteran. While the Astros certainly have a youth movement in progress, I believe that retaining Feldman and his $8 million 2016 contract is a key to winning a World Series this October.



40 Man Roster Review: Introduction, Kevin Chapman

I intend on publishing a player profile nearly every day for the next 47 days. That is, on February 16, there are 47 days until the Astros embark on their 2016 season. A 12:05 first pitch is scheduled in New York against the Yankees.

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First up is relief pitcher Kevin Chapman. Born and raised in Florida, he has played all of his pre-professional baseball in his home state. He was drafted twice prior to the Kansas City Royals drafting and signing him as a 4th round selection of the 2010 Amateur Draft. 

The Astros acquired him in a swap of insurance policies. Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois went to the Royals, while the Astros received D'Andre Toney (appears to be retired) and Chapman.

Chapman has little work in the major leagues and is certain to begin the season with the Fresno Grizzlies. He is definitely a nice insurance policy for the Astros, as he has posted a 3.24 ERA albeit only 47 innings at the MLB level. 

The bulk of his work in the minor leagues suggests that he is limited to relief work in the major leagues. Chapman holds a career 3.59 ERA in a body of 285 2/3 innings pitched across 6 seasons. 

Kevin is a left-handed pitcher who works with a three-pitch mix, offering just a slider, sinker, and change up. These offerings have little variance with his sinker topping out at 93 while his change up sits around 85 miles per hour. 

Entering the 2016 season, Chapman owns 128 days of service time.


Sunday, February 14, 2016

Anthony Simonsen Crowned at USBC Masters 2016

Thirty-seven years a record stood for one of bowling's most prized tournaments. In 1979, at age 19 and 83 days, Mike Aulby won the Masters Tournament.

The United States Bowling Congress Masters, or USBC Masters for short, is one of four major events on the Professional Bowling Association's tour.

On Sunday, February 14, 2016, Anthony Simonsen took the prize at age 19 and 39 days. Simonsen, who defeated amateur Dan MacLleand 245-207 in the title match, received a $50,000 check for his winning week.

Simonsen is no stranger to the spotlight. In October 2015, he and Connor Pickford lead qualifying in the Mark Roth/Marshall Holman PBA Doubles Championship. They would go on to win the event and split a $22,000 check.

The USBC Masters has 15 games of qualifying, separated into three blocks of 5 games apiece. Two of their qualifying sets are on a fresh pattern, while one block is contested on the "burn." After qualifying, the top 63 + the defending champion are seeded into a 64-man bracket.

Simonsen qualified fifth overall with a 223.71 average (3341 total pinfall), and cruised through the winners bracket, going 6-0.