Bud Selig is an absolute genius. Not only did he orchestra one of the greatest acts of extortion in MLB history, but he has created the rivalry of the 21st century. Jim Crane is already a benefactor of Selig's criminal nature. Now, he can benefit from phase 2 of the plan.
So far, this story is pretty one-sided. The Texas Rangers have OWNED the Houston Astros. During the Astros' 111-loss season, the Rangers claimed 17 of 19 victories. Things were above-average in 2014, with the Astros actually taking the season series, with 11 wins against 8 losses. In 2015, both teams made the playoffs, but you could say that the Astros 6-13 record against Texas was the difference in losing the division versus winning.
The 2016 campaign is much like the 2013 season, at least with the competitiveness between the Rangers and Astros. Or, lack of competitiveness. But their current 1-9 record is not as abysmal as the 2013 season for one reason. The Astros 2013 performance against the Rangers was a -57 run differential; the equivalent of trailing in 19 games by 3 runs. This season, however, has seen the Astros kind of be on the same run pace as the Rangers, with a margin of 1.7 runs per game.
So how do the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros become a rivalry for the ages? Well, as we approach the All-Star Break, the Rangers have a 53-34 record. That mark leads the Astros pace by 6.5 games, with the Houston club owning a respectable 46-40 win-loss despite the horrendous start to the season.
The answer to making the Rangers-Astros rivalry significant comes with the Houston Astros winning the 2016 World Series. Not only does the recipe require that to happen, but the Astros must trade either Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve to the Rangers in the upcoming offseason. On exactly January 5, 2017.
Trading Jose Altuve makes the most sense. He has been with the Astros since the 2011 season; the year the rebuild really kicked off. He isn't even a Luhnow draftee! How can he possibly be a member of the Astros future? The best part of trading Altuve is his tremendous present value. He is ridiculously cheap for the next 3 seasons. In 2017, he will earn $4.5 million dollars. With team options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the Rangers would only have to pay $12.5 million dollars for those two seasons. Since a $1,251,455.02 (2016 worth of $100,000 in 2020) auction price is a little low, the Rangers will probably be fine with sending their entire High-A roster to the Astros system.
Every piece of the puzzle is falling into place. Hell, even Scott Boras has entered the charade, as he has become Jose Altuve's agent. With Altuve's value only rising as he reiterates his status as the best second baseman in MLB, the clock to trade him is ticking.
The winner of this sweepstakes will be the Texas Rangers, because Bud Selig's plan to make the Astros and Rangers rivalry the game's best will soon come to fruition.
Friday, July 8, 2016
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Should the Houston Astros trade for Mark Trumbo?
If the Houston Astros want to make the playoffs and advance, they require an additional bat to bolster the bottom half of the lineup. The most obvious hole to plug would be in the outfield. While many fans are discontent with the season Colby Rasmus has had thus far, he and George Springer are by far head and shoulders above the third and fourth outfielders for the Astros.
Carlos Gomez has been a total failure of an acquisition. Gomez owns a .227/.287/.329 slash line through 104 games with the Astros. Among players in Major League Baseball with at least 200 plate appearance, Gomez ranks 6th worst in terms of wRC+. Gomez also owns an OPS+ of 67 for this season, which is even more unacceptable than the 84 mark he posted with the Astros last August and September.
These numbers are surprising considering that Gomez has been quite lucky when putting the ball in play, with a mark of .322 in the BABIP department.
Jake Marisnick has been even more disappointing for the Astros. He has been terrible. To be fair to him, however, he is playing very infrequently, with just 121 plate appearances at the halfway point in the season. Still, with an OPS of just .488, there has to be a sense of urgency to remove him from the Major League roster.
The concept of trading for Mark Trumbo is not ideal. But the Astros desperately require an outfielder to make their lineup a little more dangerous. With Trumbo enjoying a career year prior to testing free agency, something Carlos Gomez is not doing, the Astros should try to trade like goods to the Baltimore Orioles.
The 48-35 Baltimore Orioles are exceeding their expected win-loss record by 3 wins, per baseball-reference's Pythagorean win-loss calculation. They are excelling despite having one of the worst starting rotations in Major League Baseball. While the Astros starting rotation has been disappointing overall, they were much better in the month of June, with a 3.30 earned run average.
A potential match between the Orioles and Astros would be to trade Mark Trumbo for a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. One of the major problems is that Trumbo would be a rental, so it would make sense for the Astros to trade a player that also is a free agent at the end of the season.
Scott Feldman is a guy who fits that bill. However, he has pitched just 49 innings this season, with only 5 games started. Doug Fister is another option. Would the Astros be willing to part with their best starter thus far? This is a little more realistic, as Fister has exceeded expectations so far, despite owning a lofty 1.4 HR/9 ratio as well as a walk rate much higher than his career average. Trading Fister for Trumbo could be a win-win for both teams, but I doubt that this swap would be enough to satisfy both parties.
A tertiary trade suggestion would be to trade either Chris Devenski or Michael Feliz, who both possess significant service time for team control, to the Orioles in exchange for Mark Trumbo as well as a pair of prospects.
Jeff Luhnow has a history of trading with Dan Duquette, while the latter was the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers. Perhaps they will find common ground that suits both clubs as they make the playoff push as well as try win the World Series.
Carlos Gomez has been a total failure of an acquisition. Gomez owns a .227/.287/.329 slash line through 104 games with the Astros. Among players in Major League Baseball with at least 200 plate appearance, Gomez ranks 6th worst in terms of wRC+. Gomez also owns an OPS+ of 67 for this season, which is even more unacceptable than the 84 mark he posted with the Astros last August and September.
These numbers are surprising considering that Gomez has been quite lucky when putting the ball in play, with a mark of .322 in the BABIP department.
Jake Marisnick has been even more disappointing for the Astros. He has been terrible. To be fair to him, however, he is playing very infrequently, with just 121 plate appearances at the halfway point in the season. Still, with an OPS of just .488, there has to be a sense of urgency to remove him from the Major League roster.
The concept of trading for Mark Trumbo is not ideal. But the Astros desperately require an outfielder to make their lineup a little more dangerous. With Trumbo enjoying a career year prior to testing free agency, something Carlos Gomez is not doing, the Astros should try to trade like goods to the Baltimore Orioles.
The 48-35 Baltimore Orioles are exceeding their expected win-loss record by 3 wins, per baseball-reference's Pythagorean win-loss calculation. They are excelling despite having one of the worst starting rotations in Major League Baseball. While the Astros starting rotation has been disappointing overall, they were much better in the month of June, with a 3.30 earned run average.
A potential match between the Orioles and Astros would be to trade Mark Trumbo for a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. One of the major problems is that Trumbo would be a rental, so it would make sense for the Astros to trade a player that also is a free agent at the end of the season.
Scott Feldman is a guy who fits that bill. However, he has pitched just 49 innings this season, with only 5 games started. Doug Fister is another option. Would the Astros be willing to part with their best starter thus far? This is a little more realistic, as Fister has exceeded expectations so far, despite owning a lofty 1.4 HR/9 ratio as well as a walk rate much higher than his career average. Trading Fister for Trumbo could be a win-win for both teams, but I doubt that this swap would be enough to satisfy both parties.
A tertiary trade suggestion would be to trade either Chris Devenski or Michael Feliz, who both possess significant service time for team control, to the Orioles in exchange for Mark Trumbo as well as a pair of prospects.
Jeff Luhnow has a history of trading with Dan Duquette, while the latter was the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers. Perhaps they will find common ground that suits both clubs as they make the playoff push as well as try win the World Series.
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