In the quest to see the Houston Astros win their first-ever World Series Championship, many critics believe the team needs another starting pitcher. The trio of Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, and Lance McCullers is a formidable group. Additionally, Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton each have shown signs they deserve a start in the postseason. With this being far from an ideal situation, talks of acquiring an additional pitcher for the playoffs do have merit.
It has been suggested that James Paxton is a controllable arm that would come at a low price. I wish that Mariners management would view Paxton that way, but in reality, they should view Paxton's value between that of Chris Sale and Johnny Cueto.
My analysis of James Paxton and the fit for the Astros and Mariners makes two generous assumptions: one, the Mariners decide to sell and two, they accept a package from a divisional rival. The Mariners would likely have to face Paxton a handful of times the next couple of seasons. In my personal opinion, with several win-now contracts, the Mariners are more likely to engage in a "soft sell" similar to what the Pirates did in 2016. This is due to their 39-39 record concluding play on Sunday and they're still in reasonable position to obtain a wild card berth. In fact, FiveThirtyEight credits the club with a 34% chance of making the postseason despite an average simulated season of just 83-79.
The asset in question is likely one of the most underrated starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. Estimating trade value for the left-handed is difficult to gauge, but any hypothetical suggestion of a 1:1 deal is ridiculous and insults the Mariners competence. In 347 career innings, Paxton has worked to a 3.42 ERA/3.22 FIP alongside 8.7 H/9 and 0.7 HR/9 ratios with 8.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. He also ranks well among his peers, as from 119 pitchers with at least 240 IP since 2015, Paxton ranks 27th in K/9, 54th in BB/9, 37th in ERA, and 12th in FIP. From a financial perspective, Paxton will be eligible for arbitration following the 2017 season and could be a free agency in advance of the 2021 season.
That being said, I strongly reject the notion that the Astros should pursue Paxton with any aggression. The deal breaker for the Astros here is not prospect capital to yield to a divisional rival; it is health of the proposed acquisition.
Thus far in the month of June, the Astros relief corp has thrown 87 1/3 innings, which is fourth-most in MLB. The result that matters most is not pretty. The staff relief ERA for June is 4.84; however, a 3.07 FIP suggests a ton of bad luck. I also trust their rate stats (11.65 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, and 1.03 HR/9) which are consistent with season results. Perhaps the most impressive piece of data for the month of June is their 2.81 SIERA, which is 0.16 runs better than their cumulative season mark.
If the bullpen is THIS good despite being overworked, I am anxious to see the results from a bullpen that gets the ball in the 7th inning as opposed to the fourth, fifth, or on days in which Martes throws, the third inning. James Paxton is likely not the guy to depend on for going deep into a game. The Astros would be seeking to increase their operational effectiveness by acquiring an SP, and Paxton's health is a detriment. Yes, he certainly has the skillset of a top-fifty pitcher, but he has demonstrated an inability to both stay healthy and pitch deep into games. James averages 5.68 IP per start throughout his career.
Looking at a longevity standpoint, Paxton falls well short of a trade package the Mariners would seek. From 2015 to the present, only 9 pitchers have cracked the 500 IP threshold. As good as Paxton has been while he is healthy, he is certainly not what the Astros are looking for, as it is a significant detriment to his value that he has thrown just 249 innings.
It is not out of the realm of possibility to see the Mariners' asking price be similar to what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale last winter. While James Paxton is certainly no Sale, team control has a lot of weight in a trade, which is evidenced in the Nationals' acquisition of Adam Eaton. I envision that the two teams will never match up on a trade scenario that benefits both parties, but if they were, a Paxton swap would include Derek Fisher, Francis Martes, David Paulino, and Cionel Perez.
Yikes. Houston is better off trading those guys in an attempt to land Jacob DeGrom, Chris Archer, or somebody else.
Yikes. Houston is better off trading those guys in an attempt to land Jacob DeGrom, Chris Archer, or somebody else.
