Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Should the Houston Astros trade for Mark Trumbo?

If the Houston Astros want to make the playoffs and advance, they require an additional bat to bolster the bottom half of the lineup. The most obvious hole to plug would be in the outfield. While many fans are discontent with the season Colby Rasmus has had thus far, he and George Springer are by far head and shoulders above the third and fourth outfielders for the Astros.

Carlos Gomez has been a total failure of an acquisition. Gomez owns a .227/.287/.329 slash line through 104 games with the Astros. Among players in Major League Baseball with at least 200 plate appearance, Gomez ranks 6th worst in terms of wRC+. Gomez also owns an OPS+ of 67 for this season, which is even more unacceptable than the 84 mark he posted with the Astros last August and September.

These numbers are surprising considering that Gomez has been quite lucky when putting the ball in play, with a mark of .322 in the BABIP department.

Jake Marisnick has been even more disappointing for the Astros. He has been terrible. To be fair to him, however, he is playing very infrequently, with just 121 plate appearances at the halfway point in the season. Still, with an OPS of just .488, there has to be a sense of urgency to remove him from the Major League roster.

The concept of trading for Mark Trumbo is not ideal. But the Astros desperately require an outfielder to make their lineup a little more dangerous. With Trumbo enjoying a career year prior to testing free agency, something Carlos Gomez is not doing, the Astros should try to trade like goods to the Baltimore Orioles.

The 48-35 Baltimore Orioles are exceeding their expected win-loss record by 3 wins, per baseball-reference's Pythagorean win-loss calculation. They are excelling despite having one of the worst starting rotations in Major League Baseball. While the Astros starting rotation has been disappointing overall, they were much better in the month of June, with a 3.30 earned run average.

A potential match between the Orioles and Astros would be to trade Mark Trumbo for a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. One of the major problems is that Trumbo would be a rental, so it would make sense for the Astros to trade a player that also is a free agent at the end of the season.

Scott Feldman is a guy who fits that bill. However, he has pitched just 49 innings this season, with only 5 games started. Doug Fister is another option. Would the Astros be willing to part with their best starter thus far? This is a little more realistic, as Fister has exceeded expectations so far, despite owning a lofty 1.4 HR/9 ratio as well as a walk rate much higher than his career average. Trading Fister for Trumbo could be a win-win for both teams, but I doubt that this swap would be enough to satisfy both parties.

A tertiary trade suggestion would be to trade either Chris Devenski or Michael Feliz, who both possess significant service time for team control, to the Orioles in exchange for Mark Trumbo as well as a pair of prospects.

Jeff Luhnow has a history of trading with Dan Duquette, while the latter was the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers. Perhaps they will find common ground that suits both clubs as they make the playoff push as well as try win the World Series.

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