Monday, April 11, 2016

Collin McHugh's Struggles are Greatly Exaggerated

Collin McHugh is an excellent pairing to the defending Cy Young in Dallas Keuchel. While McHugh's season debut did not go so well, he has shown ace potential in his career with the Houston Astros. Some people are quick to criticize that McHugh was the recipient of tremendous run support in 2015. Here are some facts.
(Rick Yeatts/Getty)

McHugh started in 32 games for the Houston Astros in 2015. In 21 of those games, he earned a "quality start." A quality start is a pitcher who goes at least six innings pitched and yields no more than 3 earned runs for the duration of his outing. Yes, technically a pitcher who goes exactly six innings and gives up exactly three earned runs pitched a quality start, despite a 4.50 earned run average for the night.

Approximately two-thirds of the season, Collin McHugh was brilliant on the mound. In these games he collected a 13-2 record with a 2.38 earned run average. In the games in which he failed to pitch to the quality start standard, he was dreadful.

The team ended up being 6-5 (.545 winning percentage.) in these eleven starts, which makes sense for a team that finished the season 86-76 for a .530 winning percentage.

Note that an additional loss for McHugh would have been a .500 record in his bad starts, which is considerably different from .015 percentage points.

Throughout two-plus seasons with the Houston Astros, McHugh has compiled a 30-20 win-loss record, a 3.51 earned run average, and a 3.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 358 2/3 innings of work.

Everything will be alright, Astros fans. McHugh has proven himself to be one of the best pitchers in the game. He will continue to produce a winning record as a member of the Astros rotation in 2016.

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