Your 2016 National League Cy Young Champion: Jose Fernandez

The Miami Marlins donning the number 16 in Monday's win against the New York Mets was an impressive gesture toward the memory of Jose Fernandez. In the past few days, I have wished that this was some sick, twisted joke. But as the hours slowly tick away, and baseball remembers the potential Hall of Fame career lost at just 24 years of age, my mind wants to properly express its feelings. 

Laying in bed on Tuesday night, I wondered if a pitcher had ever won the Cy Young Award posthumously. If not, Jose Fernandez had an impressive case for the award so far this season. In the transition from counting stats to sabermetrics, Jose entered the conversation with his 6.2 WAR rating in 29 starts this season. I admit, this is not the perfect tool. 

Nor is a win-loss record combined with ERA, which in Fernandez' case, was 16-8 and 2.86 this season. 

You know what? Forget about arguing whether or not Jose Fernandez deserves the 2016 National League Cy Young Award. 

Think about Dee Gordon's first at-bat on Monday against the New York Mets. A left-handed batter, he took the first pitch of the game with the same batting stance as his teammate. Later in that same at-bat, he crushed a ball to the second deck at Marlins Park. In a post-game interview, Gordon stated "if you don't believe in God, you might wanna start." 

Think about Aledyms Diaz' grand slam Tuesday night. The twitter accounts of the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins had an interaction that starts the water works for pretty much everyone. 

Think about the family of Jose Fernandez. His mother, who he saved from drowning when he defected from Cuba. Think about his grandmother, who the Marlins arranged a visa for, and surprised Fernandez and reunited their family.

The next part hits me pretty hard. Fernandez and his girlfriend, Maria, who were expecting a baby. 

While it is unlikely that Fernandez will win the Cy Young Award, I think that it would be the comfort his family requires. It may even help the baseball world heal. Unfortunately, from a statistical point of view, there are more qualified candidates. 

I am certain that, in time, Major League Baseball will properly pay homage to the life and legacy of Jose Fernandez. May his joy for playing baseball be replicated.

Bring Yoenis Cespedes to Houston

A year ago today, or maybe not even that long ago, I would have laughed if you wanted Yoenis Cespedes on the Houston Astros. "There are prospects on the way!" I may have exclaimed to discuss Preston Tucker, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, and Daz Cameron as part of the Houston Astros future.

But a lot has changed in the past few months. The 2016 Houston Astros season has been a massive disappointment. Dallas Keuchel regressed heavily; Tony Sipp had the worst season of his career; the closing job has been a rotating door thanks to an inconsistent manager. We learned that Carlos Correa has difficult hitting left-handed pitching. Lance McCullers season has been cut short by shoulder soreness/fatigue.

2016 has been a difficult year for the Houston Astros.

Some things have gone right. Jose Altuve is making an attempt to lead the American League in hits for the third consecutive season, though, Wednesday night's early exit has him in doubt for the opener in Seattle this weekend. Alex Bregman ascended quickly from Double-A Corpus Christi, making a pit stop in AAA Fresno, before coming to the Major Leagues and defining himself as a quality top-of-the-order hitter.

The signing of Cuban infielder Yullieski Gurriel has shown early signs of being a great deal. Through his first 21 games, the 32-year-old Cuban superstar is slashing .338/.360/.521 with three home runs.

Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (23), Yuli's younger brother, recently held a showcase for MLB teams and is likely to contend for the 2017 Rookie of the Year award.

Yoenis Cespedes signed a three-year deal last offseason with the New York Mets worth $75 million. That deal, however, includes an opt-out after this season. With $47 million left on the table, many writers and executives in MLB think he will walk and test free agency again. As well he should. In 117 games this season, Cespedes has hit .288/.358/.557 and driven in 79 runs. Among Astros' with at least 200 plate appearances, Cespedes would have an OPS superior to all but Jose Altuve (.952, .915).

Jon Heyman believes that Yoenis will earn a 4-year deal worth $100 million this winter. If I were the General Manager of the Houston Astros, I would definitely make a competitive offer for Cespedes' services for the 2017 and beyond seasons.

The Astros window to win is now. With a quality lineup that adds Yoenis Cespedes as a left fielder and retains Luis Valbuena as a first baseman, the offense would compete with any team on any day.

Completing the Rangers-Astros Rivalry

Bud Selig is an absolute genius. Not only did he orchestra one of the greatest acts of extortion in MLB history, but he has created the rivalry of the 21st century. Jim Crane is already a benefactor of Selig's criminal nature. Now, he can benefit from phase 2 of the plan.

So far, this story is pretty one-sided. The Texas Rangers have OWNED the Houston Astros. During the Astros' 111-loss season, the Rangers claimed 17 of 19 victories. Things were above-average in 2014, with the Astros actually taking the season series, with 11 wins against 8 losses. In 2015, both teams made the playoffs, but you could say that the Astros 6-13 record against Texas was the difference in losing the division versus winning.

The 2016 campaign is much like the 2013 season, at least with the competitiveness between the Rangers and Astros. Or, lack of competitiveness. But their current 1-9 record is not as abysmal as the 2013 season for one reason. The Astros 2013 performance against the Rangers was a -57 run differential; the equivalent of trailing in 19 games by 3 runs. This season, however, has seen the Astros kind of be on the same run pace as the Rangers, with a margin of 1.7 runs per game.

So how do the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros become a rivalry for the ages? Well, as we approach the All-Star Break, the Rangers have a 53-34 record. That mark leads the Astros pace by 6.5 games, with the Houston club owning a respectable 46-40 win-loss despite the horrendous start to the season.

The answer to making the Rangers-Astros rivalry significant comes with the Houston Astros winning the 2016 World Series. Not only does the recipe require that to happen, but the Astros must trade either Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve to the Rangers in the upcoming offseason. On exactly January 5, 2017.

Trading Jose Altuve makes the most sense. He has been with the Astros since the 2011 season; the year the rebuild really kicked off. He isn't even a Luhnow draftee! How can he possibly be a member of the Astros future? The best part of trading Altuve is his tremendous present value. He is ridiculously cheap for the next 3 seasons. In 2017, he will earn $4.5 million dollars. With team options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the Rangers would only have to pay $12.5 million dollars for those two seasons. Since a $1,251,455.02 (2016 worth of $100,000 in 2020) auction price is a little low, the Rangers will probably be fine with sending their entire High-A roster to the Astros system.

Every piece of the puzzle is falling into place. Hell, even Scott Boras has entered the charade, as he has become Jose Altuve's agent. With Altuve's value only rising as he reiterates his status as the best second baseman in MLB, the clock to trade him is ticking.

The winner of this sweepstakes will be the Texas Rangers, because Bud Selig's plan to make the Astros and Rangers rivalry the game's best will soon come to fruition.

Should the Houston Astros trade for Mark Trumbo?

If the Houston Astros want to make the playoffs and advance, they require an additional bat to bolster the bottom half of the lineup. The most obvious hole to plug would be in the outfield. While many fans are discontent with the season Colby Rasmus has had thus far, he and George Springer are by far head and shoulders above the third and fourth outfielders for the Astros.

Carlos Gomez has been a total failure of an acquisition. Gomez owns a .227/.287/.329 slash line through 104 games with the Astros. Among players in Major League Baseball with at least 200 plate appearance, Gomez ranks 6th worst in terms of wRC+. Gomez also owns an OPS+ of 67 for this season, which is even more unacceptable than the 84 mark he posted with the Astros last August and September.

These numbers are surprising considering that Gomez has been quite lucky when putting the ball in play, with a mark of .322 in the BABIP department.

Jake Marisnick has been even more disappointing for the Astros. He has been terrible. To be fair to him, however, he is playing very infrequently, with just 121 plate appearances at the halfway point in the season. Still, with an OPS of just .488, there has to be a sense of urgency to remove him from the Major League roster.

The concept of trading for Mark Trumbo is not ideal. But the Astros desperately require an outfielder to make their lineup a little more dangerous. With Trumbo enjoying a career year prior to testing free agency, something Carlos Gomez is not doing, the Astros should try to trade like goods to the Baltimore Orioles.

The 48-35 Baltimore Orioles are exceeding their expected win-loss record by 3 wins, per baseball-reference's Pythagorean win-loss calculation. They are excelling despite having one of the worst starting rotations in Major League Baseball. While the Astros starting rotation has been disappointing overall, they were much better in the month of June, with a 3.30 earned run average.

A potential match between the Orioles and Astros would be to trade Mark Trumbo for a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. One of the major problems is that Trumbo would be a rental, so it would make sense for the Astros to trade a player that also is a free agent at the end of the season.

Scott Feldman is a guy who fits that bill. However, he has pitched just 49 innings this season, with only 5 games started. Doug Fister is another option. Would the Astros be willing to part with their best starter thus far? This is a little more realistic, as Fister has exceeded expectations so far, despite owning a lofty 1.4 HR/9 ratio as well as a walk rate much higher than his career average. Trading Fister for Trumbo could be a win-win for both teams, but I doubt that this swap would be enough to satisfy both parties.

A tertiary trade suggestion would be to trade either Chris Devenski or Michael Feliz, who both possess significant service time for team control, to the Orioles in exchange for Mark Trumbo as well as a pair of prospects.

Jeff Luhnow has a history of trading with Dan Duquette, while the latter was the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers. Perhaps they will find common ground that suits both clubs as they make the playoff push as well as try win the World Series.

Collin McHugh's Struggles are Greatly Exaggerated

Collin McHugh is an excellent pairing to the defending Cy Young in Dallas Keuchel. While McHugh's season debut did not go so well, he has shown ace potential in his career with the Houston Astros. Some people are quick to criticize that McHugh was the recipient of tremendous run support in 2015. Here are some facts.

(Rick Yeatts/Getty)

McHugh started in 32 games for the Houston Astros in 2015. In 21 of those games, he earned a "quality start." A quality start is a pitcher who goes at least six innings pitched and yields no more than 3 earned runs for the duration of his outing. Yes, technically a pitcher who goes exactly six innings and gives up exactly three earned runs pitched a quality start, despite a 4.50 earned run average for the night.

Approximately two-thirds of the season, Collin McHugh was brilliant on the mound. In these games he collected a 13-2 record with a 2.38 earned run average. In the games in which he failed to pitch to the quality start standard, he was dreadful.

The team ended up being 6-5 (.545 winning percentage.) in these eleven starts, which makes sense for a team that finished the season 86-76 for a .530 winning percentage.

Note that an additional loss for McHugh would have been a .500 record in his bad starts, which is considerably different from .015 percentage points.

Throughout two-plus seasons with the Houston Astros, McHugh has compiled a 30-20 win-loss record, a 3.51 earned run average, and a 3.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 358 2/3 innings of work.

Everything will be alright, Astros fans. McHugh has proven himself to be one of the best pitchers in the game. He will continue to produce a winning record as a member of the Astros rotation in 2016.

What to do with Alex Bregman?

The Houston Astros organization has the potential of possessing a good problem. The immediate issue is what to do with Evan Gattis. Tyler White is off to a great start in his MLB career. Preston Tucker is driving in runs, something that he has always done.

Looking ahead, there is a logjam developing at shortstop. Carlos Correa is quickly breaking records and forcing himself into the conversation as the best player in baseball. Alex Bregman is the Astros #1 prospect and is also a shortstop. He may be knocking down the door for being the shortstop soon, as the Astros 2015 first pick is starting the 2016 season for the Double-A Corpus Christi Hooks.

Photo Credit: Tammy Tucker

Bregman’s professional baseball career began with an aggressive assignment with the Astros low-A Quad Cities River Bandits team. A well-earned promotion to the Lancaster Jethawks came after just 29 games. Altogether, Bregman hit .294/.366/.415 across 272 at-bats. If his ascension to the major leagues continues at such a torrid pace, where will he play?

What about left field? The 2017 Houston Astros outfield has two question marks. Will Carlos Gomez and Colby Rasmus depart via free agency? The possibilities with these two players alone are endless. The Astros could win the World Series and retain a star outfielder at a discounted price. That would be the Alex Gordon route.

It is also entirely within reason that the Astros fail to win the World Series, fail to reach that point, or fail to reach the postseason at all.

Alex Bregman is completely dedicated to proving himself as a shortstop. In fact, Jim Callis once noted that Bregman gets “’ticked off’” at the suggestion of changing positions. Should the need occur, the move to left field is a logical step toward an optimal Astros lineup.

There is a lot of baseball to be played in the 2016 season. Bregman may not reach the major leagues in an Astros uniform. Luhnow’s acquisitions of Ken Giles, Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers have screamed that the organization is not shy about trading away prospects. Heck, Colin Moran may even be traded, which would open the door for Correa to move to third base to accommodate Bregman opening his career at shortstop.

A change of position is something that Bregman may be unhappy with at first, but the ultimate goal is to help the team win. This discussion is completely void if the Astros decide to move Colin Moran to the outfield instead. As stated before, the possibilities are endless. 

40-Man Roster Review: Collin McHugh

Collin McHugh quietly enjoyed a very strong campaign in 2015. On the heels of a breakout campaign in which he finished 4th in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, McHugh delivered. The grass certainly could have been greener. Sustaining good health in MLB is very difficult; a lingering blister plagued his pitching in the months of May and June.

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In those months, McHugh pitched to 5.08 and 4.97 ERAs, respectively. But despite those months, McHugh finished with 203 2/3 innings pitched, a 3.89 ERA and a 19-7 win-loss record. He even finished 8th in the American League Cy Young vote.

Jeff Luhnow punched a winning ticket with Collin McHugh, Selected off waivers in December 2013, McHugh had succeeded in the minor leagues, but that could not be sustained in MLB. The Astros convinced him to utilize his breaking pitches more. Note that after debuting with Houston, McHugh utilizes his curveball at least 20% of the time.

I am excited to see what the 2016 season has in store for McHugh. In two years with the Astros, he is 30-16 with a 3.39 ERA. 

If you are interested in learning more about Collin, please visit his personal blog http://www.adayolderadaywiser.com/. 

Follow him on Twitter @Collin_McHugh 

40-Man Roster Review: Lance McCullers

Lance McCullers is more than a pitcher on the Houston Astros 40-man roster. He is more than the number on his back and he is certainly a professional beyond his age. Lance McCullers is a true student of the game of baseball. 

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Ted Berg, a writer for FTW! MLB, wrote a brilliant piece discussing spin rates and the Houston Astros. Berg credits McCullers for being eager to learn, with respect to spin-rate data, "as soon as it was presented" to the young right-hander. 

Berg explains in his article that Lance has been working on replicating the change-up that Felix Hernandez deploys. This is pretty interesting. Take a look at whiffs per swing data for Hernandez, provided by Brooks-Baseball:

With McCullers tossing 125 2/3 innings last season, there is not a lot of data on his pitch usage. The data that Brooks-Baseball does have, however, is crazy. McCullers' worst month was June, where he only induced 26.92 whiffs per swing on his change-up.

Comparing Hernandez and McCullers' heat map with the change-up is pretty interesting as well:

It appears that McCullers is echoing Hernandez' pitch placement. McCullers  has a tendency to miss a little higher in the zone. With experience and more faith in his ability, I am confident that Lance will grow and locate his pitches better.

Overall, McCullers is a really good pitcher for the Houston Astros. In his rookie effort, he threw 125 2/3 innings, resulting in a 3.22 earned run average. Other numbers look quite nice. His strikeout-to-walk ratios are exceptional: 9.2 K/9; 3.1 BB/9; therefore, 3.0 strikeouts per walk issued. 

Once seen as a question mark with regards to a future in the bullpen or being a starting pitcher, this 22-year-old is silencing experts and internet bloggers. He is the real deal and should be in the mix for a Cy Young run as early as this season.

40-Man Roster Review: Dallas Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then a name can be worth a thousand words. Or many, many more. I am not going to spend all day writing this roster review. I assume that if you are here, you are already aware that Dallas Keuchel is a top-20 pitcher in all of Major League Baseball.

So let's just cover a few basics. Drafted and signed by the Astros in the 2009 MLB draft, Keuchel made his MLB debut just shy of three years after first signing a professional contract. He did not pitch poorly; 5 innings, 4 bases on balls, 4 hits, 2 strikeouts and 1 earned run.

Keuchel's mark in the earned run average department kind of fall in line with the Astros loss total during the 2012 and 2013 seasons(5.27. 5.15). They also help illustrate how the Astros went from a 55-win club in 2013 to an 86-win team in 2015 (2.93, 2.48).

Dallas Keuchel has a hell-of-a-story to tell regarding his 2015 season. The team itself was expected to be better than 70 wins; yet, not quite over the .500 mark. En route to a 20-8 record and a 2.48 ERA, Keuchel went 15-0 at home, started in the 2015 American League All-Star Game, and defeated the New York Yankees (on the road) in a win-or-go-home setting that was the American League Wild Card Game. 

Keuchel is the embodiment of the Houston Astros administrated by General Manager Jeff Luhnow. In the image below, observe how many pitches are in the outer third of the strike zone. Not only are they outside, but they are also heavily concentrated in the bottom portion of the zone. This helps to ensure both soft contact and downward force on the baseball. The result is a higher ground ball rate. 

Another graphic that I would like to direct attention to is with respect to his pitch usage. The main differences here are an increase in his sinker usage. In the first couple seasons, Keuchel used his sinker around 40% of the time. In the past two seasons, however, he is employing that pitch more and more. There is a slight dip in the mid-to-late portion of 2015. Overall, Keuchel uses his sinker more than half the time. His other pitches have essentially stayed the same in regards to usage. But it is very interesting that Keuchel is, for the most part, a two-pitch kind of guy. It works!

Most peripheral statistics suggest that Keuchel is not a fluke. The graphics selected show that he has developed an idea of where to attack batters in the strike zone as well as what pitches work well for him. In four seasons of data, only the 2013 season has an outlier in terms of BABIP. In order from 2012-present, Keuchel has posted: .277, .340, .295 and .269 marks in this statistic.

People may infer that Keuchel will not replicate his 2015 season in 2016. That is okay by me. Keuchel is not a fluke. He is a Cy Young Winner and a true major league pitcher. 

40-Man Roster Review: Will Harris

Jeff Luhnow has a pretty good history with the waiver wire. The next player covered in this series, Will Harris, is a perfect example of evidence supporting the introductory statement. 

Before the Astros selected Harris via waivers, he had pitched for the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks. His tenure with the Rockies was abysmal. A couple of seasons with the Diamondbacks saw a mixed bag of results. 

In 2015, Harris broke through and excelled with a 1.90 earned run average in 71 innings of work. 

Today I pose the question: is this result sustainable? 

There are a few red flags when looking at the 2015 stat line for Harris. The first issue that I would like to mention is the discrepancy between ERA and FIP. The latter is an acronym for Fielding Independent Pitching. Fangraphs defines FIP as a "measure to what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing." 

Baseball-reference credits Harris with a 3.66 mark for FIP. His 1.90 earned run average results in a 1.76 difference - that's the equivalent of nearly 2 runs per nine innings! Part of this can be attributed to a stellar defense playing. *cough* shifts *cough*

Returning to the question of sustainability, I look at Harris and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Here, the results are perhaps even scarier. Harris' .192 BABIP is exceedingly low in comparison to the Astros' pitching staff BABIP of .285.

I took a sample of fifteen Astros pitchers from the 2015 season. These fifteen pitchers threw at least 30 innings last season. Harris' .192 BABIP was -2.65 standard deviations away from the team BABIP of .285. On a standardized mean curve, being two standard deviations away from a mean suggests that statistic occurs less than 2.5% of all cases in the long run. Therefore, I think that the BABIP Harris benefited from in 2015 is very unlikely to occur again in 2016.

Will Harris had exceptional campaign in 2015. But, his BABIP will certainly regress to the mean in 2016. Keep him in a fairly short term role in the middle innings. Nothing more, and don't expect a repeat. 

40-Man Roster Review: Jandel Gustave

Jandel Gustave has been a Houston Astro for the majority of his professional career. Last season, however, he was briefly a Kansas City Royal. The Astros failed to add him to the 40-man roster and allowed him to be selected by the Boston Red Sox, who then traded him to the Royals. Eventually he was deemed not-quite-ready and offered back to the Astros, who happily accepted him back.

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But most people knew the Royals would not hang onto Gustave. JJ Cooper, a writer with Baseball America, contributed his thoughts last December: 

Gustave touched 100 mph as a starter. Moving to the ‘pen with the Royals (who acquired him for cash from the Red Sox), he could be the hardest-throwing pitcher in the game’s hardest-throwing pen, if he can stick.

For what it's worth, Cooper also said Delino DeShields had a low chance of sticking with the Texas Rangers. Oops.

Anyways, Gustave is back with the Astros and (thankfully) on the 40-man roster. But that is obvious...

Gustave, who will be 23 years old for the entirety of the 2016 season, pitched for the Corpus Christi Hooks in 2015. He was primarily the closer for the club. Gustave recorded 20 saves en route to a 2.15 earned run average in 58 2/3 innings pitched.

I believe that Gustave still has a lot to harness. Yes, he throws hard. But the strikeouts were not really present during his time with the Hooks (just 49). He also displayed signs of wildness, as he walked 25 batters. As rates, these figures come out to 7.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. Together, this is a very abysmal rate, with 1.96 strikeouts coming per walk. Yikes.

If he can improve in those areas while keeping the ball in the park, Gustave will be a very responsible pitcher in the major leagues. Throughout 255 innings in the minor leagues, he has yielded just 9 home runs. Jandel is a young pitcher with a lot of potential and I see him further developing his skills as a member of the Fresno Grizzlies for the whole 2016 season.

40 Man Roster Review: Luke Gregerson

The next pitcher in the 40-man roster review is Luke Gregerson. Originally signed by the St. Louis Cardinals through the 2006 draft, Gregerson made his Major League Debut in 2009. He has served the entirety of his seven-year career as a relief pitcher.

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In December 2014, the Houston Astros inked Gregerson to a three-year pact, set to expire at the end of the 2017 season. That agreement was for a total value of $18.5 million dollars.

Prior to signing with the Astros, Gregerson had the best season of his career with the Oakland Athletics. With that club, which won a Wild Card berth, Gregerson pitched to a 2.12 earned run average across 72 1/3 innings of work.

With the Houston Astros, however, Gregerson struggled. The Astros asked him to change into a role as a closing pitcher. Before the 2015 season, Luke had collected 19 saves throughout six years of being a member of the relief corps, seldom getting an opportunity to finish a game.

The Astros gave him an opportunity in the 2015 season. Given a new role, he was nearly guaranteed to surpass his records. But the new pressure resulted in his highest earned run average since his sophomore effort in the major leagues.

While I feel that Gregerson is an adequate closer, I think that Luke's track record as a set-up man is hard to ignore.

40 Man Roster Review: Ken Giles

Everyone loves speed. Whether it be Jose Altuve stealing second base or a closing pitcher lighting up the radar gun, speed is good. With the Astros' acquisition of Ken Giles, they now have speed on the basepaths and out of the bullpen.

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Giles threw 1,185 pitches during the 2015 season. 471 of those, 39.74%, were greater than 96 miles per hour. The Astros as a team combined to throw just 268 such pitches, with 81 of those belonging to Vincent Velasquez.

Velasquez, of course, was one of the pieces sent back to Philadelphia.

Okay, enough googly eyes about velocity.

Giles is still a very unknown commodity in the major leagues. Through parts of two seasons, he owns a career 1.56 earned run average. That mark has been developed through 115 2/3 innings on a team that lost a combined 188 games in the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

And during the 2015 season, Giles was tasked with save situations 20 times. In 15 of those, he locked down the save. However, he blew it 5 times, so his save percentage was a lackluster 75% for the season.

Now there are many, many folks who expect Ken Giles to be the closer. After all, it does not make much sense to trade three starting pitchers (Velasquez, Mark Appel, and Brett Oberholtzer) plus a pair of minor league pitchers for an ordinary bullpen arm.

Adding Ken Giles to the Astros bullpen, however, is more about adding core competence. Astros fans need not be reminded of the collapse in the 8th inning in Game 4 of the American League Division Series. Would having Giles available for the 9th inning changed the outcome of that inning? No. What if Giles were a Kelvin Herrera option in the 7th inning? Or, being bold, what if he were a Wade Davis?

These hypothetical questions may never be answered. One thing is certain: A.J. Hinch's job just got easier, because Giles > Qualls.

40 Man Roster Review: Doug Fister

On the heels of an unexpected 86-win campaign, the Houston Astros are expected to build on that success in the 2016 season. While some fans would have liked the Astros to increase their payroll above the $100 million threshold, that is something they will have to endure just a while longer.

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The truth is that the club was still shopping in the bargain bin in the 2015-2016 offseason. Now this may not have been a terrible decision, because as of mid-February, the signing of Doug Fister appears to be a steal in the current market.

Doug Fister has been involved as, arguably, the key piece in two trades. One of those came in the 2011 season, where he was included in a six-player deal. Fister went from Seattle to Detroit in that swap. In December 2013, the Nationals acquired him for a pair of minor league pitchers and an utility infielder.

The 2015 season was probably Fister's worst in the major leagues. He pitched in just 103 innings. In that time his strikeout to walk ratio was just 2.63 to 1 and he allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings. Some of his struggles can be attributed to a forearm strain that cost him the majority of the season.

Brooks Baseball credits Fister with six pitches. Take that with a grain of salt, however, as Fister is primarily a sinker-baller. In 2015 his usage of the sinker was in excess of 60% in each month. Obviously, there is a significant drop-off in % usage for his other pitches, with a slider and curveball receiving most of the remaining use.

Throughout his career, Fister has posted a 48.8% ground ball rate. That makes since given his use of a sinker. The 44.6% mark posted in 2015 is a cause for concern, which helps explain why Fister had a seemingly low value in free agency.

One final thing of note is his height. At 6'8", Fister is now the tallest member of the Houston Astros. I cannot help but think about Chris Young (Royals) and how he shut the Astros down in relief during the American League Division Series. A fellow Astro, Scott Feldman, is also among the more vertically successful pitchers in Major League Baseball. It seems that although these pitchers are not gifted with velocity, they are able to be average to above-average pitchers with ease, at least in terms of earned run average.

With this in mind, I am confident that Doug Fister will be a steady component of the Astros rotation this season. After all, his 7-year career in the major leagues suggests he can be very good (1.79 ERA in 70 1/3 innings w/ DET in 2011) or at least a quality arm in a contending rotation (3.42 career ERA).

40 Man Roster Review: Mike Fiers

The next player to be reviewed is right-handed pitcher Mike Fiers. Originally a 22nd round selection of the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2009 draft, the Astros acquired him and Carlos Gomez in a trade at the 2015 deadline.

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Fiers is probably most recognized for his no-hitter in mid-August. In a 3-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, Fiers was masterful of his arsenal. Brooks Baseball, simplistically defines his arsenal as a pair of fastball variants, two breaking pitches, and an off-speed offering. With the help of pitching coach Brent Strom, I am excited to see further development.

Despite pitching a no-hitter last season, I consider Fiers time with the Astros up-and-down. Part of this can be attributed to questionable managing. I am in no way suggesting that AJ Hinch did a bad job last season. However, it is confusing to acquire a pitcher then immediately use him as an emergency relief pitcher.

The month in which he threw a no-hitter, August, Fiers settled into his new club quite well. Of course, such a performance helps to maintain a low batting average against as well as earned run average.

September, on the other hand, saw mixed to poor outings from Fiers. Three of his five starts in September were quality. In the grand scheme of things, however, he struggled to a 4.45 earned run average.

This seesaw of results likely played a role in him not starting a game in the postseason. But for him to not transfer to a relief role, one that he served his debut in albeit terrible results, is a little puzzling.

Regardless of the past, Fiers seems to have been a solid pickup for the Astros. With a full spring training and Brent Strom's guidance, I am expecting Fiers to display more consistent strings of success. Oh yeah, and he will be a starting pitcher. There are no doubts about that.

40 Man Roster Review: Josh Fields

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The next player in my 40 man roster review is one of the more underrated players on the Houston Astros. Josh Fields was a selection in the December 2012 edition of the Rule 5 draft.

Brooks Baseball credits the 6'0" right-handed pitcher with a four pitch offering. His most used pitch is a cut-fastball in the mid-90's. A slider, curveball, and change-up are also deployed in efforts to keep opposing batters off balance.

Through parts of three seasons with the MLB club, Fields owns a 4.27 earned run average across 143 1/3 innings of work. That figure, to me, is vastly misleading. In the 2014 and 2015 campaigns, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP, for short), credits Fields with marks of 2.09 and 2.19, respectively.

To further illustrate how Fields has outperformed his earned run average, I set certain parameters into Fangraphs. Since Fields has tossed 104 2/3 innings in this last two innings, I felt that American League relievers with 100+ innings should be qualified. Of the 43 pitchers that met these requirements, Fields' combined FIP of 2.14 ranked 5th overall.

These highly successful relief pitchers included Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Jake McGee, and Dellin Betances. These four men ahead of Fields posted a significantly better mark on Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). Josh posted a mark of .327; the highest of the bunch ahead of him was McGee's .279 statistic.

Mark Appel via Twitter

Using the same parameters, I took a look at his strikeout per 9 innings ratio. I suppose that it does make sense for Fields to rank so well in this category. Fields' 11.71 K/9 rate ranks him 8th among 43 qualified relief pitchers.

Lastly, while evaluating Fields among his peers, I felt that home run/fly ball percentage is yet another good tool in analyzing his performance. This was, personally, the most surprising metric of Fields past two years.

Only Blaine Hardy (Tigers) and Wade Davis (Royals) have posted a better HR/FB ratio. In the long run, 3.2% of Fields' fly balls batted against him will have left the yard, as compared to Hardy's 3.0% and Davis' 2.9%. Incredible.

My findings were drawn to confirm my bias that Josh Fields is one of the most underrated members of the Houston Astros bullpen. It seems that Fields is an above-average option for the Astros in the later stages of baseball games.

40 Man Roster Review: Michael Feliz

An electric arm. If you asked me what I thought of Michael Feliz, that would be my response. Prior to the start of the Astros 2015 season, Feliz was to be assigned to the Corpus Christi Hooks as the #7 prospect in the system.

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Feliz is first and foremost a starting pitcher, but made his debut in 2015 as a member of the Astros bullpen. He is a right-handed pitcher who has a three pitch mix, including a fastball in the upper 90's plus a low 80's slider and change-up. The video, at the bottom of this page, displays his repertoire during a short-season Class A contest, while Feliz pitched for the Tri-City Valley Cats.

During the 2010 calendar year, as a 17-year-old, Feliz inked a deal with the Oakland Athletics. That contract was short-lived, however, as Feliz tested positive for substance abuse. Under the management of Ed Wade, the Astros signed him anyway, for a lesser price of course. 

Feliz tossed over 100 innings between 2010 and part of the 2012 season before making any waves in the system. Something clicked mid-season and he posted a 1.64 earned run average in 38 1/3 innings with the Gulf Coast League Astros (rookie ball). 

Take note that his success began during the 2012 campaign, In the December prior to the 2012 season, Jeff Luhnow was brought aboard as the General Manager of the Houston Astros. 

Success was a roller coaster ride (see ERA) for Feliz in each season, including 2012, to the present. But it is widely documented that the California League is a difficult environment for pitchers. Take Lance McCullers, for example. The stud pitcher for the Astros posted a 5.47 earned run average during his time with the Lancaster Jethawks; 4.41 for Feliz. 

Entering the 2016 campaign, Feliz owns just 38 days of MLB service time. It is hard to see him breaking camp with the big-league squad. I think that he is a viable depth option for either the bullpen or starting rotation, and am excited to see his progression with the Fresno Grizzlies during the 2016 season.

40 Man Roster Review: Scott Feldman

Prior to the 2014 season, Scott Feldman signed a 3 year, $30 million contract with the Houston Astros. I recall that, at the time of the signing, I was disappointed. Injuries cost him much of the 2015 season. Overall, in two seasons with the club, Feldman has worked to a 13-17 record including a respected 3.80 earned run average.

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Entering the 2016 season, Feldman might be the odd man out of a rotation that includes Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, and Doug Fister.

Overall, Feldman is an 11-year MLB veteran. He has compiled a 4.42 career ERA in just under 1200 innings (1198.0).

The majority of his work came from his time with the Texas Rangers. I am optimistic that Feldman learned how to pitch in the major leagues after struggling to find himself at the end of the 2000's. In 8 years with the Rangers, Feldman posted a 4.81 ERA in 727 2/3 innings pitched.

In the time spent outside of Rangers employment, Scott has yielded much better results. Only in 90 2/3 innings in the American League East has Feldman posted an ERA north of 4 since the 2012 season. Without much analysis, I reject the argument that 2013-present is a small sample size, as 470 1/3 innings is nearly 40% of his time in the major leagues.

For the most part, Feldman has a three pitch offering. Brooks Baseball credits his brief 2015 work including an upper 80s cut-fastball and sinker with a typical 75 mph curve ball.

Feldman's ability to stick in the rotation depends on his ability to keep the ball on the ground as well as in the ballpark. During his tenure with the Rangers, he was consistently in the 50-60% range for ground balls. While that figure dipped for a few years, there is evidence to suggest he can recover a 50% mark. Between the 2014 and 2015 seasons, albeit a 72 inning discrepancy, Feldman increased his ground ball rate by 2%.

Feldman is a respected MLB veteran. While the Astros certainly have a youth movement in progress, I believe that retaining Feldman and his $8 million 2016 contract is a key to winning a World Series this October.

40 Man Roster Review: Introduction, Kevin Chapman

I intend on publishing a player profile nearly every day for the next 47 days. That is, on February 16, there are 47 days until the Astros embark on their 2016 season. A 12:05 first pitch is scheduled in New York against the Yankees.

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First up is relief pitcher Kevin Chapman. Born and raised in Florida, he has played all of his pre-professional baseball in his home state. He was drafted twice prior to the Kansas City Royals drafting and signing him as a 4th round selection of the 2010 Amateur Draft. 

The Astros acquired him in a swap of insurance policies. Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois went to the Royals, while the Astros received D'Andre Toney (appears to be retired) and Chapman.

Chapman has little work in the major leagues and is certain to begin the season with the Fresno Grizzlies. He is definitely a nice insurance policy for the Astros, as he has posted a 3.24 ERA albeit only 47 innings at the MLB level. 

The bulk of his work in the minor leagues suggests that he is limited to relief work in the major leagues. Chapman holds a career 3.59 ERA in a body of 285 2/3 innings pitched across 6 seasons. 

Kevin is a left-handed pitcher who works with a three-pitch mix, offering just a slider, sinker, and change up. These offerings have little variance with his sinker topping out at 93 while his change up sits around 85 miles per hour. 

Entering the 2016 season, Chapman owns 128 days of service time.

Anthony Simonsen Crowned at USBC Masters 2016

Thirty-seven years a record stood for one of bowling's most prized tournaments. In 1979, at age 19 and 83 days, Mike Aulby won the Masters Tournament.

The United States Bowling Congress Masters, or USBC Masters for short, is one of four major events on the Professional Bowling Association's tour.

On Sunday, February 14, 2016, Anthony Simonsen took the prize at age 19 and 39 days. Simonsen, who defeated amateur Dan MacLleand 245-207 in the title match, received a $50,000 check for his winning week.

Simonsen is no stranger to the spotlight. In October 2015, he and Connor Pickford lead qualifying in the Mark Roth/Marshall Holman PBA Doubles Championship. They would go on to win the event and split a $22,000 check.

The USBC Masters has 15 games of qualifying, separated into three blocks of 5 games apiece. Two of their qualifying sets are on a fresh pattern, while one block is contested on the "burn." After qualifying, the top 63 + the defending champion are seeded into a 64-man bracket.

Simonsen qualified fifth overall with a 223.71 average (3341 total pinfall), and cruised through the winners bracket, going 6-0.