Saturday, July 8, 2017

Proposed Houston Astros Trade for Marcus Stroman

The Toronto Blue Jays are most likely not going to trade Marcus Stroman. But there have been a lot of fan suggestions of adding him to the Astros rotation. He is probably one of the most desirable arms in MLB, although his availability is certainly doubtful.

Stroman currently has accrued 2 years and 148 days of service time. As a Super Two player, he won salary arbitration for the 2017 season at a cost of $3.4 million. Therefore, Stroman is a potential asset through the 2020 season, at which point he would be eligible for free agency.

Throughout his career so far, Stroman is 32-21 with a 3.80 ERA/3.52 FIP. While he is not a strikeout pitcher, he doesn't yield to opposing batters often, instead allowing his defense to work for him. His most impressive quality, and it would fulfill an Astros strategic hole, is his ability to work deep into games. He has pitched 456 2/3 innings in his career as a starter, which is essentially the equivalent to going 6 1/3 innings in every game.

The Houston Astros pitching staff, in contrast, has gone about two outs fewer on average. As a unit, the Astros starting pitching has gone 5.51 innings through 87 starts this season.

Entering the 2017 campaign, the Toronto Blue Jays had a roster that should have been a postseason contender. A dreadful start has all but rendered that possibility extinct. Two-fifths of their rotation is slated for free agency at the conclusion of this season, so I am speculating that ownership and upper management would seek young, controllable starting pitching in addition to some top prospects in return.

If I were the GM of the Houston Astros, I would submit Mike Fiers (RHP), Francis Martes (RHP), Franklin Perez (RHP), and Gilberto Celestino (OF). Martes, Perez, and Celestino rank as the Astros #1, #6, and #12 prospects (rankings per MLB.com).

Fiers may not be the most attractive arm in a trade, but he does come with 2 more years of club control. It helps that he has a no-hitter under his belt alongside a solid career. Martes is a young flamethrower who may be best served in a bullpen role, but has risen through the minor league ranks as a starting pitcher.

Perez is currently with the Astros class-A advanced club and has a mid-90's fastball, a plus curveball and is working on developing a change up and slider. Franklin currently has a 3.22 ERA and opponents are batting just .189 against him this season.

Lastly, Gilberto Celestino is a teenager playing for the Astros rookie-level club in Greeneville. He throws left-handed despite hitting right-handed and could make his major league debut during the 2020 season.

The addition of Marcus Stroman will add a dependable starting pitching to the Astros rotation. I would imagine that he would slot in either between Keuchel and McCullers in a postseason series, though I would not be surprised to see him behind McCullers on the depth chart. Regardless of the prospects that Toronto wants, Stroman is a quality starting pitcher that would be a relatively low-cost fan favorite through the 2020 season.